| Home / College Guide / Soppes Fantasy WR Start-Sit Week 2 Players Include CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, Emek |
| Posted on Friday, September 12 @ 00:00:54 PDT |
Fantasy football Week 2 is here, and it’s time to sort through what’s real and what’s just Week 1 noise. Wide receiver performances were all over the map, from duds to breakouts. The key now is focusing on usage, matchups, and stable roles over small-sample results. Here’s how to approach some of the biggest names on your roster this week.
A.J. Brown (at Chiefs)
Well, that wasn’t very fun.
For just the third time in his career, the first since his rookie season with the Titans, A.J. Brown failed to earn multiple targets in an NFL game.
One catch. Eight yards.
That’s all he gave you, and that one reception came after 58 minutes of suffering to help Philly ice this game. This happening in Week 1 is obviously less than ideal, but the idea that something like this could happen shouldn’t be a surprise.
The Eagles are a low-volume passing attack, and that carries with it a low floor for all involved. Last season, both Brown and DeVonta Smith were top-15 PPR receivers, and between the two of them, they had five games with single-digit point totals.
It doesn’t usually happen on the same night like it did Thursday, but these duds happen — I need you not to overreact simply because it happened in Week 1 and that Brown is now pacing for 136 yards this season.
As much as the city of Philadelphia wanted this game, I think it’s safe to say that the organization itself is probably putting a little more emphasis on this Super Bowl rematch than a Week 1 showdown with a franchise stuck in the mud. Brown scored in each of his final three games last regular season. He scored in the NFC Title game against the Commanders, and he scored in the Super Bowl.
When the Eagles place a high level of value on a game, #11 has a way of getting his. There were three instances last season in which Brown didn’t finish the week as a top-40 performer at the position, and you still profited from counting on him weekly because of his raw ability.
Trust the process here. You didn’t draft anyone thinking that 17 games of greatness were lucky. Be thankful to have this dud on the way, understanding that more good than bad is likely coming.
But yes, this sort of thing does happen to the Eagles’ pass game, and it likely won’t be the last time it does. You signed up for variance, and you’re getting it. Buckle up.
Adam Thielen (vs. Falcons)
The idea of rostering Adam Thielen was there. He’s coming home to a team working with a new quarterback that will be without its up-and-coming WR2 for the first three weeks of the season.
Your effort to mine value for the first month of the season was made in good faith, but after the veteran earned just one target on 16 routes against the Bears, I think we can move on without much concern.
What’s the risk? He catches seven balls for 70 yards this week, and you miss out on a player with low-end WR3 upside in Week 3, the final one before Jordan Addison returns to action and suppresses his projected usage even further?
I’d rather throw a dart at any available Packer receiver or a Tyquan Thornton type in Kansas City that carries some single-target juice.
It’s been a fun ride, Mr. Thielen, but the time has come for us to move on.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (vs. Bears)
That’s not a great start.
Amon-Ra St. Brown’s target diet in terms of slot usage and aDOT looked similar to what it was last season under Ben Johnson. Still, his on-field target share was nearly half of what we’ve come to expect (14.3%, career: 26.4%). If this new offense can’t generate opportunities for its most talented player, Week 1 isn’t going to be the last underwhelming showing from this offense.
Relax.
It was one week. The first week with a new OC. Facing a defense that just added one of the biggest game-wreckers in the sport.
The Packers are as familiar with St. Brown as anyone, and they finally found a way to bottle him up: for me, Week 1 was more a sign of things to come from Green Bay’s defense than a cause for concern when it comes to Detroit’s offense.
St. Brown has cleared 70 receiving yards in three of his last four games against the Bears, and I like him to make it four of five in this spot. Skeptics will point to Johnson having the skeleton key to stopping him, and you can feed into that for DFS purposes if you’d like, but don’t do anything silly in season-long spots.
Brandon Aiyuk (at Saints)
The 49ers are hoping for a mid-October return for Brandon Aiyuk, a former first-round pick who had ranked 11th in the NFL with 2,357 yards from the start of 2022 to the end of 2023.
By getting some clarity on the health front in the first half of August, we were at least able to enter drafts with some sort of plan. Aiyuk is hanging out on your IR slot for the time being, meaning that he is not costing you a roster spot and thus isn’t taking much win equity off of your plate early on.
In a perfect world, his injury recovery would have taken us past the San Francisco bye week, but it doesn’t (Week 14 bye).
That said, a fully functional Aiyuk coming down the stretch for an offense that needs an alpha WR in a favorable stretch (Titans, Colts, and Bears in Weeks 15-17) could be the piece that swings your fantasy postseason.
This injury was priced into Aiyuk’s cost at your draft, so there’s no point in trying to trade for him now. But what if his manager starts slow? What if panic mode sets in before we have a definitive return date?
I’m making a mental note of who has Aiyuk rostered and tracking their status, preparing to pounce should the losses pile up in September.
Brian Thomas Jr. (at Bengals)
There were a handful of ace receivers who were shut down in Week 1, and three of them are playing in this game.
Call up Will Smith and have him bring the Mind Eraser from Men in Black: you should be operating as if last week never happened.
Thomas got home on his lone rushing attempt of Week 1, helping mitigate some of the damage done by his one-catch performance (seven targets). The rush attempt isn’t predictive, but it is proof that Liam Coen was hellbent on getting his WR1 the ball, even if Trevor Lawrence couldn’t throw it in his zip code.
This game should be played with pace and with the Jaguars trailing (3.
5-point underdog). I have all three star receivers in this game ranked as top-12 plays for the week, with Thomas checking in as WR5.
If you want to send a low-ball trade offer, your opportunity figures to be closed by halftime on Sunday.
Calvin Ridley (vs. Rams)
The good news for Calvin Ridley managers is that Patrick Surtain can only play for one franchise. Tennessee’s WR1 had to deal with the best corner in the sport last week, and while he did well to earn eight targets, the 6.7 PPR points weren’t helpful.
The Rams are no picnic of a matchup, and they just bottled up Nico Collins for four quarters, but I’m OK with buying some Ridley stock right now.
The target volume was good to see in Cam Akers’ debut, and I’m a believer that if he can continue to earn looks at a rate like that, he’ll return flex value more often than not.
I’m not going out of my way to play him in this spot (WR41), but if Akers continues to lock in on his lone reliable pass catcher, Ridley could crack my top-30 or so next week (vs. Colts).
Cedric Tillman (at Ravens)
Entering this season, Cedric Tillman had played at least three quarters of the snaps nine times in his career:
- 91.5 PPR fantasy points
- 60 targets (eight in the end zone)
So, why should we be surprised at all by what we saw last weekend against a porous Bengals defense?
In Week 1, Tillman turned an 88.
7% snap share into 16.2 fantasy points, a line that was boosted by an end zone target. He’s been buried at times, but the path to playing time is clear for him right now, and the quarterback situation might be as good as it’s going to get in Cleveland.
The Ravens’ defense is stout when Josh Allen isn’t on the other side of the ball, and that’s why I have Tillman ranked outside of my top-40 at the position this week, but I could certainly see getting there in a DFS lineup where you stacked Lamar Jackson with Zay Flowers.
CeeDee Lamb (vs. Giants)
The drops led off every highlight show last Friday, and they should have. Those lapses in concentration from a player like this in an offense that is going to rely on him are unacceptable.
But let’s take it down a notch in the fantasy world. Lamb was featured from the jump and finished with a 39.4% target share. He had more catches (seven) than any of his teammates had targets and posted a 13.8-yard average depth of target, higher than any single game from a year ago.
On Thursday, Lamb became the second-youngest player to reach 500 career receptions (bar trivia answer: Larry Fitzgerald sits atop that list) and also drew a pair of impactful pass interference calls to help keep the ‘Boys competitive.
Based on target expectations, Lamb underachieved projections by 14.3% and still flirted with 20 PPR points. This was always a strong first-round pick, and he remains a real threat to lead the position in scoring every time he laces ’em up (18.1 PPR PPG career vs. NYG with over 80 receiving yards in four of five home games against the divisional rival).
Chris Godwin (at Texans)
The Bucs activated Chris Godwin off the PUP list on August 21 (Week 7, fractured ankle), but the expectation remains for him to miss all of September.
This, of course, was baked into the draft day price tag on the 29-year-old. Unless something changes drastically, this will be the sixth time in seven years that Godwin has missed multiple games. But there is hope that the cautious rehab approach will result in him peaking at the right time for both the Bucs and his loyal fantasy managers.
Tampa Bay has a well-positioned Week 9 bye, which could allow Godwin to test his body to its limits in the second month of the season, knowing that an off week isn’t too far off.
In any event, you drafted him with the hope that he’d be a 1,000-yard pace player for a seventh straight season with consistent volume for you when he hits the field, and we have no real reason to think he won’t be.
His lack of touchdowns was a concern heading into last season, but five of his 50 catches in 2021 resulted in scores, giving us hope that we are looking at a WR2 down the stretch. The Bucs close the season with about as favorable a schedule as anyone in the league, giving him an even better chance to impact your fantasy season massively, even if he’s not doing that in the first month.
- Week 13 vs. Cardinals
- Week 14 vs. Saints
- Week 15 vs. Falcons
- Week 16 at Panthers
- Week 17 at Dolphins
- Week 18 vs. Panthers
Chris Olave (vs. 49ers)
I can’t imagine that, seven days ago, the Saints schemed up a game plan that involved 46 Spencer Rattler throws. That said, things like that happen when you’re a bad football team, so I don’t think Chris Olave’s managers have to apologize for him getting 13 targets.
He’s going to need every one of them.
Averaging 4.15 yards per target is a dangerous game to play, even if you think the volume is stable. We know that Olave carries injury flags and that the overall upside of this offense is limited.
I think he’s a very good player, but skill is less than half the equation in my eyes, and that’s why he’s ranked outside of my top-30 this week.
It’s a different situation, but he ranks right next to Tyreek Hill in my Week 2 rankings. You can go this direction for your flex if you like, but I have George Pickens and Hollywood Brown ranked higher than him.
Christian Kirk (vs. Buccaneers)
A strained hamstring resulted in Christian Kirk missing Week 1, and the team expressed a desire to be cautious with a receiver who missed nine games a season ago. Nico Collins was on the shelf for over a month with a similar diagnosis last season, and that is likely to serve as a guiding light this time around (Houston has their bye in Week 6).
That shouldn’t significantly impact your fantasy roster. Kirk wasn’t drafted as a starter in most formats, and with bye weeks not a thing in September, the odds were slim that you were going to start him in the short term, even if at full strength.
If you have the luxury of an IR slot or deep benches, I’m still moderately bullish on Kirk being able to carve out a niche in an offense that I expect to prioritize the pass. But I understand that not everyone is in a league structured like that, and the fact of the matter is that Kirk is likely to be dead weight this month.
The “active but limited” designation is always in play with injuries like this, and that creates a headache that is greater than the potential reward.
If one of these rookie receivers establishes himself, Kirk’s ceiling lowers in a significant way, so that’s how I’m treating this situation if I don’t have an IR spot available.
Are you bullish on either Jaylin Noel or Jayden Higgins? If so, cut ties with Kirk and look for upside elsewhere. Until that’s the case, I’d sit tight.
Cooper Kupp (at Steelers)
On the bright side, Cooper Kupp led the Seahawks in routes and was on the field for 88% of their offensive snaps.
On the downside, his second-half slide from last season looks to be more of a trend than a fluke. Kupp turned one of every eight routes into a target and did next to nothing with them (two catches for 15 yards).
Kupp had just 53 receiving yards in his last three regular season games with the Rams, but we were holding out hope that the veteran could return to the form he showed before Thanksgiving and be a viable lineup piece.
I’m not 100% ruling that out, but I’m certainly not playing him until I see some signs of life in the target-earning department. Kupp has a big name, but I’d play Wan’Dale Robinson over him this week without losing sleep over it.
Courtland Sutton (at Colts)
This is a fun game we play, and that’s why we get enamored with the players who can return any sort of performance.
Courtland Sutton isn’t that. He’s unlikely to single-handedly determine your outcome this week or any week. Over his last 11 games, he’s scored 14.8-20.8 PPR points seven times. You know what you’re getting, and that is why he is so rarely discussed.
The Colts shut down the Dolphins last weekend, but that was much more of an indictment on Miami than anything to fear on the Indianapolis side. In that game, Jaylon Jones (hamstring) and Charvarius Ward (concussion) were both banged up, making this a potentially very advantageous spot for the Broncos as a whole.
I’m comfortable locking in a double-digit floor with more upside this week than usually presents itself for Denver’s WR1. In 2021, he ranked fourth in the air yards per game (109.2), and he posted 110 in Week 1 against Tennessee despite getting the L’Jarius Snead treatment.
Successful fantasy teams are built around Sutton types and run into a breakout season or two. Try to remember that. Looking for the diamond in the rough is important, but holding a diamond that was sitting right in front of you has value as well.
Darius Slayton (at Cowboys)
Darius Slayton led the Giants in routes run (44), but I watched the entire game and had no idea (one target).
Malik Nabers is a target vacuum, and that’s naturally not going to leave much meat on the bone for any of his teammates, but that hurts a player like Wan’Dale Robinson more than Slayton.
You’re never betting on volume here; you’re betting on a single play that makes all of your dreams come true. Slayton is more of a DFS option in the right spots than a realistic redraft player, and that’s not breaking news.
Could he hit big against Dallas? He’s skilled enough that one splash play is never out of the question. Still, the Boys were more vulnerable on shallow passes than deep ones (12th best by passer rating downfield, 32nd otherwise) last year, thus fueling my preference for Robinson over Slayton as the WR2 in New York.
“Preference” might be a bit misleading: neither Robinson nor Slayton ranks among my top 50 receivers this week.
Darnell Mooney (at Vikings)
Darnell Mooney is coming off a career year in terms of fantasy production relative to expectation, fantasy points per target, and yards per route. The success was great to see after a pair of down seasons with the Bears, and it resurfaced the idea of him being a legitimate WR2 in a productive offense.
Any momentum he built entering 2025, however, was lost with a summer shoulder injury that cost him the season opener against the Buccaneers.
This offense could certainly use a consistent WR2 to aid the development of Michael Penix Jr. But with Bijan Robinson and, jokes aside, Kyle Pitts as viable target earners, I think it’s fair to label Mooney’s 2024 production as a ceiling when it comes to per-game output.
This is a situation to watch closely. Your IR spot isn’t overly valuable this early in the season, but should this injury linger, there’s a good chance you are asked to make a tough decision, and I’m not going to be fighting hard to keep Mooney rostered if that’s the case.
Davante Adams (at Titans)
Davante Adams caught 50% of his targets in Sunday’s win over the Texans, while all of his teammates caught 85%. You could leverage that stat to build a “he’s washed” case if you wanted to, but I think he just ran a little cold against a strong defense.
It happens.
He could draw some L’Jarius Snead attention in this game, and that’s not great, but if you’re telling me he gets eight Matthew Stafford targets, I’m telling you he’s a top-25 WR.
And that’s right where I have him. Puka Nacua is great, but he can’t do it all, and I trust Stafford to put a touchdown-scoring savant like Adams in positions to be successful.
I have Adams ranked as a low-end WR2 this week, in the same range as Tetairoa McMillan and the always-stable Jakobi Meyers.
DeAndre Hopkins (vs. Browns)
The highlight reel catch in a game that’ll be remembered for years to come was fun, but I don’t find it all that predictive.
Opportunities are going to be difficult to come by in this offense (if you watched on Sunday night, outside of the fumble, Derrick Henry was building a solid case to hand him the ball 100% of the time), and that’s only going to be more true when Isiah Likely returns.
Don’t forget that the Chiefs brought Hopkins in the middle of last season, and by the playoffs, they saw the future Hall of Famer catch three balls in three games. He was a good story in Week 1, but I’m not in any hurry to scoop him off the waiver wires right now.
Deebo Samuel Sr. (at Packers)
There was concern across the fantasy industry that Deebo Samuel was cooked and that the Commanders were simply chasing a ghost in terms of his productive days (à la Buffalo with Amari Cooper last season or how many viewed the DeAndre Hopkins signing by the Ravens this summer).
Maybe that proves accurate if his body can no longer withstand the same level of punishment it once did, but he looked dynamic over the weekend, and it’s clear that Washington is interested in giving him as much work as he can handle.
He was the first Commander with multiple targets in the Week 1 win over the Giants and finished as the sixth-highest scoring at the position (more catches than any of his teammates had targets).
I’m encouraged by the usage and production, but over the next four months, I still expect Terry McLaurin to be the clear WR1 for this offense.
That, however, doesn’t mean that Samuel can’t produce. The run game is still TBD (Bill Croskey-Merritt had the big run late to seal the deal, but things are thin there, and Samuel certainly has the type of versatile profile that can add value in a variety of ways), and there isn’t much in the way of target competition as you move down this depth chart.
You’re looking at my WR33 this week. I don’t love a veteran like this on a short week against an improved defense, but you could do worse. For context, I have the hot pickup of the week in Hollywood Brown one spot higher and would also play Rome Odunze/George Pickens over him.
That said, he does check in above the very talented, but spotty situations tier that includes the Tyreek Hills and Chris Olaves of the world.
DeMario Douglas (at Dolphins)
DeMario Douglas had a 7.3-PPR point catch in the first quarter, and his other six targets against the Raiders totaled 0.
5 PPR points.
That’s not going to work.
Douglas’ career aDOT is under seven yards (Sunday: 5.4 yards), and that means that he needs to be incredibly efficient to make it worth your while.
Two catches for -2 yards isn’t exactly that.
In fact, it’s the opposite. Being that bad in that role is difficult to comprehend. I think better times are ahead, but that’s not exactly saying much. It’s possible that Douglas turns into a low-level flex option (he did earn multiple end zone targets in a game for the first time in his career on Sunday) and/or bye-week replacement with time, but with zero teams on a bye and still relatively good health league-wide, that time is not now.
Judging by your Start/Sit Tool, you guys weren’t considering Douglas as a viable option last week, and that’s the correct mindset to take this weekend. I’m keeping him rostered because I do think the growth of Drake Maye could give Douglas a Khalil Shakir-like trajectory with time, though that’s not something I’m betting on in the short-term.
DeVonta Smith (at Chiefs)
This might be the least talked about sub-5 PPR point performance by a player started across the board in recent memory.
DeVonta Smith opened his 2025 with an airball against the Cowboys, turning his three targets into just 4.
6 fantasy points. Low-volume games are likely to occur in Philadelphia due to the nature of their offensive structure, but the four total air yards were a little painful to see (2024: 68.6 per game).
It’s not that Smith doesn’t have the type of wiggle to turn short targets into game-breaking plays; he very much does, but he ranked third in points per deep target a year ago. Even if it’s just a token target to loosen up the defense, running Smith vertically makes a ton of sense and plays a part in fueling what we are hoping is another season as a strong fantasy WR2.
We saw him haul in four of five targets against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl last season, and a 46-yard score highlighted that performance. So no, I’m not pivoting off of Smith, but I am a little concerned about the target type.
He’s never going to be a volume target earner in Philadelphia, and that makes his fantasy stock more sensitive to any change in role. Again, I’m not asking him to be DeSean Jackson from yesteryear for this franchise, but establishing the threat of him is vital for his upside, considering that his floor will always be low in an offense built around the ground game.
DJ Moore (at Lions)
The talk coming out of Monday night’s loss was more focused on Rome Odunze and less on DJ Moore, something that I just don’t understand.
Moore saw a few deep targets, including a bad misfire from Caleb Williams that would have shifted entirely the Tuesday morning narrative, and was handed the ball three times.
Not those gadgety types of handoffs out of some exotic formation. Designed and directed handoffs. They were “we haven’t gotten you the ball enough, see what you can do with this” sort of plays.
That’s what we love to see.
Moore earned double-digit targets in both games against the Lions a year ago, and with the offensive genius now on his side, I don’t imagine we’ll see that regression in a major way.
Odunze might well take the fantasy WR1 role from Moore in this offense by season’s end, but we aren’t there yet. I’ve moved seven spots higher in my positional Week 2 rankings and am comfortable starting him wherever I have him after watching the Packers dominate the Lions over the weekend.
DK Metcalf (vs. Seahawks)
The Seahawks embraced DK Metcalf as one of their own back in 2019. As a young pup out of Ole Miss, Seattle drafted him in the second round, saw Pete Carroll rip off his shirt in an effort to muscle up with the prep, and nurtured him to fantasy goodness with three 1,000-yard seasons and a pair of double-digit touchdown campaigns.
All, however, is fair in love and war, and now, Metcalf is the host. Seattle is coming to his new house, and instead of an aging head coach to buddy up next to, he has a quarterback who is 15 years older than Google.
OK, so maybe it’s not the most intimidating set-up of all time, but it’s a revenge game nonetheless, and Metcalf is coming off of a fine first showing with the Steelers (4-83-0 on seven targets). Aaron Rodgers made a point to get him involved early, hitting him for gains of 23 and 31 yards in the first quarter before diversifying his targets a little bit more as the game wore on.
Every DK Metcalf target vs. Jets (Week 1)
[#Steelers][#SteelerNation][#steelersvsjets][pic.twitter.com/PvbPF13tYW]— Tommy Jaggi (@TommyJaggi)
[September 8, 2025]
This Seahawks defense is capable of getting home, and that is where we will learn something. Rodgers was pressured on just five of his 30 attempts in a revenge game of his own last week. If that rate rises on Sunday, does Metcalf’s upside tank? Does it spike, as he’s the clear-cut first ready with regularity?
Only time will tell on that front, but I like what I saw in Week 1 enough to make him an acceptable WR2 in all formats.
Drake London (at Vikings)
Drake London suffered a shoulder sprain over the weekend, and while it sounds like more of a day-to-day thing than week-to-week, it at least deserves your tracking as we near kickoff.
That allows us to take the off-ramp of a lineup construction PSA: put banged-up players in your flex if possible at all. It sounds simple, but I often get questions on X (at KyleSoppePFN) where this basic strategy is overlooked. In doing this, you open yourself up to more options should the player end up being scratched.
In this instance, you’d have the option of replacing London with an RB/WR/TE, not just a WR, should we get news late.
OK, now that I’ve said that, nothing London did in Week 1 surprised me. We knew that he’d be in the mix for the most targeted player in the NFL, and he came through on that with 15 looks against the Bucs.
We also knew that there would be some growing pains shown by Michael Penix, which is reflected in the repulsive 4.6 yards per target.
Use last week as a baseline. I think you can expect London to score 12 to 15 PPR points more often than not, understanding that tail performances will be a part of the story with a young QB under center.
Check to make sure everything is good to go before kickoff, but assuming it is, you’re starting London as you usually would, even against a defense as aggressive as the Vikings.
Emeka Egbuka (at Texans)
The later we got into the draft process this summer, the more obvious it became that Emeka Egbuka was priced incorrectly. A late surge got his ADP inside of the top 40 at the position and top 85 overall, but it’s clear now that it’s more of a floor outcome for him in his rookie season.
His debut wasn’t high in quantity, but quality wasn’t an issue as he scored twice and finished as WR4 for the week. The go-ahead touchdown was perfect all the way around: a crisp route from Egbuka himself, an attention-seeking route from Mike Evans that sucked in the safety, and a dime from Baker Mayfield.
Really cool design from Tampa Bay Buccaneers new OC Josh Grizzard
1. WR in motion as potential open field blocker
2. Fake pitch
3. Graham Barton pulls from left tackle
4. Center and Right Tackle advance to second level
5. Ball in the hands of Emeka Egbuka in space[pic.twitter.com/PDGWzbsVU9]— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23)
[September 11, 2025]
That catch allowed him to join Hollywood Brown (2019) as the only players in the 2000s to have multiple 25+ yard TD catches in their professional debut, and it feels like just the beginning.
We will see how the targets are distributed when a fully healthy Chris Godwin returns, but that won’t be on Monday night.
Even in a below-average matchup, I have both Evans and Egbuka slotted as WR2s.
Garrett Wilson (vs. Bills)
The first game of the Justin Fields/Garrett Wilson era certainly went off with a bang, as this tandem looked comfortable in lighting up a Steelers defense that we think is pretty solid.
Wilson hauled in a 33-yard score (29 air yards, the most on a touchdown of his young career) and later had a long play that probably should have resulted in a touchdown but saw him be brought down at the two-yard line.
Even with iffy QB play in the past, Wilson has scored at least 13.8 PPR points in five of six career games against the Bills, finding paydirt in three of the past four. It’s not crazy that a talent like Wilson has had success in a specific matchup, but the efficiency is a bit surprising, all things considered.
The entire Jets team had an airball on the road in November of 2023, but outside of that, he’s caught at least 80% of his targets every time he plays the boys from Upstate New York.
I wouldn’t normally put any stock into that, but it’s hard to think that the QB play he gets this week isn’t better than what he’s had in the past. Is it possible that his profile just matches up well with this system? Bobby Babich hasn’t been the DC for the entire time, but he has been part of this defensive staff in one capacity or another since 2017.
I’ve got Wilson easily inside of my top 20 at the position this week, a ranking I expect to stick for most weeks this season.
George Pickens (vs. Giants)
The Cowboys introduced George Pickens to their fanbase on Thursday night, and he delivered a very “high school boyfriend meeting dad for the first time” performance.
He opened up with a firm handshake (six-yard gain on Dak Prescott’s first throw of the season) and made strong eye contact early on (first-quarter 34-yard DPI flag drawn). You love to see it.
But we are dealing with a 16-year-old boyfriend analogy, so this doesn’t end well. He choked on mom’s cooking (three targets earned on 32 routes after that first play) and couldn’t answer the “what are your intentions with my daughter” question with grace (unnecessary roughness penalty in the third quarter on what proved to be Dallas’ last good scoring chance:
First crash out by George Pickens.
[#Steelers][#NFL][pic.twitter.com/DeN1K8o3Th]— Blitzburgh (@Blitz_Burgh)
[September 5, 2025]
On the bright side, he isn’t the first player to struggle in his debut with a new team or flunk a parent introduction. A non-CeeDee Lamb Cowboys pass catcher reached double figures in terms of PPR points in both games against the Giants last season, thus making a bounce-back effort very possible.
I maintain my general stance that Pickens can be a flex-worthy player in this pass-oriented offense. Lamb is a threat to lead the league in targets, and that naturally limits the ceiling of a player like Pickens, but his skill set is that of a player who can do a lot with a little if the connection with Dak Prescott develops.
I was encouraged by Prescott posting a 9.7-yard aDOT, and if downfield aggression sticks as a part of this offense, better days are ahead for Pickens, potentially as soon as this week. Even after a dud in Week 1, he’s a fine flex play for me this weekend.
Hollywood Brown (vs. Eagles)
Hollywood Brown caught 60 passes in his 16 games before Week 1, but following the Xavier Worthy injury, he lit up the Chargers for 10 grabs and 99 yards in one of the more surprising performances of the week.
It’s not going to stick, but that’s not a Brown thing. It’s a math thing. No one sustains a 42.1% target share, so let’s take a step back and evaluate the most likely range of outcomes moving forward.
With Worthy out for the short term, I think there is some PPR appeal to chase this week and possibly for the rest of the month. On Friday night, 75% of his targets came less than 10 yards down the field (career rate prior: 57.
6%), and we have a half-decade sample when it comes to defenses wanting to put an umbrella on Patrick Mahomes-led offenses.
all four of Patrick Mahomes’ 20+ yard passes vs the Chargers
all 3 of Tyquan Thornton’s downfield shots saw him lined up against Cam Hart – clearly a matchup the Chiefs targeted
and the last completion off script to Hollywood Brown is SO absurd
[pic.twitter.com/sEJOMtj0cd]— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris)
[September 6, 2025]
I think he’s a fancy Wan’Dale Robinson. The volume should be there, and the quality of look is obviously high with Mahomes pulling the trigger, but I’m not sold on Brown as much of a run-after-catch threat (under 4.0 YAC in both seasons with the Cardinals), and I do think Travis Kelce is more involved this week than last.
We saw the other side of the coin with Brown early in the opener with a bad third-down drop, and that’s a reminder that he’s far from a perfect option. I hate to say it, but I think this is a low-possession game with both teams leaning into their ground games, and that means Brown giving us half of what he did in Week 1 is roughly what I have projected.
Ja’Marr Chase (vs. Jaguars)
Through two weeks last season, Ja’Marr Chase was on pace for 85 catches, 825 yards, and zero touchdowns.
You might have heard, but in case you didn’t, he finished with 127 catches for 1,708 yards and 17 touchdowns.
I have no issue in counting on your Bengals this week. In DFS circles, this might be the best spot possible to get them. The “early season” narrative is sweeping the nation when it comes to analyzing this team, but now they get a Jacksonville team that made moves this offseason to suggest that they want to try to score with teams more than stop them.
From the Liam Coen hiring to the Travis Hunter snap distribution, this doesn’t feel like a team that wants to play in 17-16 sort of games. With a 49.5-point listed total, no one is expecting that to be the case on Sunday.
Bengals win.
Bengals cover.
All of your Bengals deliver on expectations.
Jakobi Meyers (vs. Chargers)
Jakobi Meyers was the first Raider to have multiple receptions last week and went on to finish as their top player in both catches and targets (30.3% share).
Surprised?
You probably shouldn’t be.
Per-game metrics since Week 8, 2024:
- Meyers: 15.9 points, 6.4 catches, 101.0 air yards
- Drake London: 15.6 points, 5.8 catches, 115.1 air yards
- Terry McLaurin: 15.5 points, 4.5 catches, 89.6 air yards
- Garrett Wilson: 14.
9 points, 5.6 catches, 80.6 air yards
- A.J. Brown: 13.9 points, 4.7 catches, 79.3 air yards
- Tyreek Hill: 13.6 points, 5.1 catches, 82.8 air yards
That seemingly random starting point was Meyers’ first game following the trade of Davante Adams. He’s seen 9+ targets in eight of those 11 games, and it’s not as if his production has come at the expense of Brock Bowers, so what is stopping you from playing him?
I will say that I don’t love this matchup. The Chargers were the best short pass defense in the league last season, and if that spreads the range of possible outcomes, maybe you have two receivers and a flex that I prefer, but that’s not overly likely.
Meyers is a low-end WR2 for me, this week and until I’m given a reason to pivot.
Jalen Coker (at Cardinals)
I was excited about Jalen Coker early in the draft process this summer, thinking that the second-year receiver had a real chance to earn meaningful targets in a developing offense. That optimism grew after the Adam Thielen trade, but a day later, a “significant quad injury” landed him on IR.
That means Coker will miss at least the next three games, and all reporting out of Carolina has a mid-October return as the most optimistic.
I still believe there’s something in this profile, but Xavier Legette will have every chance to earn more work. That leaves Coker as a drop in all formats — unless you can stash him in a free IR slot. Even then, the odds are strong that a player with a clearer path to production will go down this month.
I’m not selling all of my Coker stock because Carolina gets New Orleans and Tampa Bay in Weeks 15-16, but you can buy back in after Halloween and likely not experience any loss in value.
Jalen McMillan (at Texans)
Jalen McMillan showed up in spurts as a rookie, but scoring on 21.6% of receptions isn’t stable. Nor was the 17.8-yard average depth of target on those touchdowns.
There were plenty of holes to poke in this profile. Still, the drafting of Emeka Egbuka has him fighting for playing time and thus a non-factor in most formats when healthy, which clearly isn’t the case after a scary injury this preseason (currently on IR with an absence that extends beyond the required four games, viewed as the most likely outcome).
There is some athletic ability here, which means spike plays are bound to happen, but I don’t expect the route/target count to be high enough to garner our interest.
If this turns into a WR rotation, we can adjust. But for the time being, McMillan is a player who holds contingent value when active, and that’s about it.
You’re not going this direction unless you have an IR spot burning a hole in your pocket.
Jameson Williams (vs. Bears)
My interest is piqued.
Not every game is going to look like Sunday did for the reigning NFC North champs, but it was an ugly showing, and it was the first data point we got in their world post-Ben Johnson.
Given the changes on the coaching staff, is it possible that we have a new role for Jameson Williams?
- Week 1: 5.4 aDOT, 11.6% target rate
- 2024: 11.6 aDOT, 19.2% target rate
I’m not sounding the alarm after 60 bad minutes, but if this proves sticky, Williams is going to have a hard time hitting your lineup, let alone returning value on the fifth-round pick you spent on him this summer.
I suspect we get clarity this weekend, for better or worse.
Last season, JaMo caught five of seven targets in both games against Chicago, but with very different results:
- Week 13: 28 yards, 9.6 PPR points, 6.6 aDOT
- Week 16: 143 yards, TD, 26 PPR points, 14.2 aDOT
I’m cautiously optimistic, but this Bears defense looked improved on Monday night.
Williams is a low-end WR3/Flex for me this weekend, ranking behind Rome Odunze as a promising young receiver taking the field in this matchup.
Jauan Jennings (at Saints)
The shoulder injury that Jauan Jennings suffered in Week 1 isn’t believed to be serious and that gives him a shot to return sooner than later, but this team did go out and bring back Kendrick Bourne, a sign that they are at least a little concerned.
I think Jennings can play, and nothing about the Saints scares me, but with George Kittle sidelined and Brock Purdy gimpy, why play with fire?
I’m not sold he plays, but even if he does, I’d rather take my medicine with a Wan’Dale Robinson type, lock in a high floor, and be on my way. If you’re more of a risk-taker, play Marvin Mims (at IND) or Rashid Shaheed on the other side of this matchup.
I’m not anti-risk; I’m anti-reckless risk, and this feels like Jennings should strap on a harness and take the field.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (at Steelers)
I missed plenty of calls last week, but I was in on Jaxon Smith-Njigba as my WR13 and a DFS building block (sign up for the PFSN Betting newsletter if you want a DFS walkthrough weekly!) against the 49ers, and it paid off (WR11: 19.
4 PPR points).
I think we can expect more of the same this week, and it wouldn’t shock me if we consider JSN a matchup-proof commodity in relatively short order.
His 59.1% target share last week was bananas and isn’t sustainable, but the idea that Sam Darnold is going to funnel the offense through him until the defense proves they have an answer is what we wanted to see.
Also good to see was the 47.8% bump in average depth of target from a season ago.
I’ll be tracking that, but if it sticks, this could be a top-10 receiver for the season. The Steelers defense has talent, but Garrett Wilson did get loose for 7-95-1 against them last weekend, and I expect Smith-Njigba to have another productive week at the office in this spot.
Jayden Higgins (vs. Buccaneers)
I suppose I could use the same write-up for both Jayen Higgins and Jaylin Noel, as neither rookie was given much of a chance to shine in the loss to the Rams. Despite a game script that favored the pass and the absence of Kirk, the team chose not to extend their rookies.
Interesting call, but I’m sitting on my couch and probably know less about the readiness of their prospects than they do, so I’ll trust it.
If they weren’t ready for Week 1, I can’t imagine they are much more ready for Week 2.
Higgins was the only Texan to see multiple deep targets last week, and that’s why I prefer him to Noel if forced to choose, as his contingent value feels higher should something happen to Nico Collins.
That said, the Texans couldn’t even get the real Collins the ball against the Rams, so why would we think that an injury replacement would have any luck?
None of the secondary Houston WRs should be near starting lineups right now, and I’m not sure any of them need to be rostered in average-sized leagues.
Jayden Reed (vs. Commanders)
Jayden Reed playing through this injury feels like an odd decision for a team hoping to play meaningful games in January, but it’s not my day to run the organization.
Jordan Love spreads the ball around, and that’s not going to change, no matter how healthy Reed is or isn’t. He was able to find the end zone last weekend against the Lions and has proven good for two touchdown catches a month over the course of his career, but is a compromised version of him seeing five targets really all that appealing?
It’s not for me.
He feels like an in-game flight risk, and the ceiling isn’t nearly high enough in this rotation to take on that sort of risk.
RELATED: Week 2 Fantasy Football Injury Tracker: Updates Include Xavier Worthy, Jayden Reed, George Kittle
There will come a time in October when you’re hurting at receiver and place value on Reed being a part of a potent offense. In that situation, you’ll be willing to overlook the red flags because it’s go this route or roll the dice on Jalen Nailor. In that situation, playing Reed is fine. In Week 2, with reasonable health across the league and all 32 teams in action, you don’t have to do it.
Reed sits outside of my top-40 receivers this week, a short one for the Pack.
Jaylen Waddle (vs. Patriots)
Week 1 in Indianapolis was a dumpster fire for the Dolphins and, to be honest, that feels disrespectful to dumpster fires.
Jaylen Waddle caught four of five targets, a level of efficiency that you’d expect with a 4.4-yard aDOT, but the shine appears to be off of this system, as he did well to pick up the 30 yards he did.
You could argue that this matchup is a get-right spot for Waddle and, in theory, I don’t hate the call. The Pats were the worst defense by passer rating on short passes, and that’s exactly how Waddle was utilized on Sunday. It’s also how he has burned them in the past:
Career game log vs.
Patriots, (Tagovailoa Starts)
Week 1, 2021: 4 catches on 5 targets for 61 yards, TD
Week 18, 2021: 5 catches on 7 targets for 27 yards, TD
Week 1, 2022: 4 catches on 5 targets for 69 yards, TD
Week 2, 2023: 4 catches on 6 targets for 86 yards
Week 8, 2023: 7 catches on 12 targets for 121 yards, TD
Week 12, 2024: 8 catches on 9 targets for 144 yards, TD
That was all “in theory.” In practice, I’m not sure I have the courage to act on any of that. If you want Miami exposure, try a contrarian DFS build. Still, in a season-long setting, this team as a whole (outside of De’Von Achane) is at the “prove it to me” level of concern, and I’m not sure one strong performance would be enough for me to go back to this offense with confidence.
Jaylin Noel (vs. Buccaneers)
Christian Kirk was sidelined with a hamstring injury for the openers, and we assumed that would open the door for Houston’s rookie class to have a chance to impress from the jump.
No dice.
Instead of putting Jaylin Noel and/or Jayden Higgins on the field with regularity, the Texans went the hodgepodge route.
Texans WR route count, Week 1:
- Nico Collins: 30
- Xavier Hutchinson: 23
- Justin Watson: 18
- Higgins: 14
- Noel: 13
If they had more warm bodies on the active roster at the WR position, I’m sure they would have gotten some run as well.
In the loss, none of them excelled, and while it sounds like Kirk could be shelved for a bit longer, I’m not ranking any non-Collins player on this team as a starter.
If you want to hold either Higgins or Noel, fine by me, but understand that it’s a lottery ticket, and moving on the second you need reinforcements is 100% viable.
Jerry Jeudy (at Ravens)
Jerry Jeudy earned 21 targets in two games against Baltimore last season (11 catches for 142 yards), with seven of those catches coming on passes thrown less than 10 yards downfield.
He was able to get home for fantasy managers in a tough spot because of volume, but are we sure that’s still a good bet these days?
At face value, the eight targets from last week’s nail-biting loss to the Bengals look good, but Cleveland threw the ball 42 times, and three of Jeudy’s teammates at least matched that total.
Now, I do think the Browns are going to be forced into passing the ball more than they want regularly, so maybe my concerns fall on deaf ears, but if the target distribution is going to be flat like this, I’m having a hard time ranking Jeudy as a WR2.
Tillman is physically challenging to match up with, and I don’t think he goes away.
He saw Cleveland’s lone end zone target during Week 1, and while I still prefer Jeudy to him, the idea of that gap closing means Jeudy’s floor/ceiling combination is a growing concern.
For me, Jeudy is squarely in that Tyreek Hill, Chris Olave, and Michael Pittman ranking range. That quartet, despite having plenty of talent, sits outside my top 30 at the position this week, with “safer” options like Jakobi Meyers and Khalil Shakir being less exciting players that I have more confidence in.
Jordan Addison (vs. Falcons)
Jordan Addison is suspended for the first three games this season (Atlanta this week and Cincinnati next) due to a violation of the league’s substance abuse policy. He’s proven himself plenty worthy of waiting on, but he is a major regression candidate (TD on 8.2% of his career targets) and is missing out on a favorable run to open the season.
On the bright side, it’s highly unlikely that a receiver steps up in his absence in such a way that will impact his season-long projection. You’re looking at a player who could be volatile every week, but as a featured option in a Kevin O’Connell offense, trusting the process is the play.
Josh Downs (vs. Broncos)
Josh Downs has caught over 68% of his career passes, an impressive accomplishment given that the Colts rank 28th in passer rating and 31st in completion percentage over that stretch.
A hamstring injury cost him time late in the preseason process, and that has me taking this as more of a wait-and-see situation. He ranked fifth on this team in routes run in Week 1 (17, trailing Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, Jonathan Taylor, and Tyler Warren) in the beatdown of the Dolphins, and a ramping-up process seems to be the play.
Downs is a talented player in an offense that is begging for someone to earn targets at a high rate, but with just 21 red zone targets (10 catches) in 32 career games, the volume of looks isn’t a “nice to have” as much as it is a “need to have.”
If the Colts are as committed to Daniel Jones as they sound, that’s good news long-term for Downs and gives him a decent chance to be a lineup staple. I’m not banking on him this week, but if he can prove his health and a nice connection with Mr. Dimes, he could be in the flex conversation as soon as next week at Tennessee.
For the sake of giving you hope, the Colts end the fantasy season with consecutive home games in favorable spots (49ers and Jaguars). At face value, that’s obviously a value boost, but the impact grows when you consider that, for his career, Downs averages 42.1% more yards per route when playing indoors than out.
Michael Pittman and Tyler Warren looked great in Week 1, something that is certainly concerning for the stock of Downs. I’m not panicking yet. I want to see what a fully healthy version of this offense looks like before projecting Downs as a clear-cut third option that won’t have a significant impact on fantasy purposes.
Joshua Palmer (at Jets)
Not every game the Bills play is going to be a 41-40 instant classic, but the team did spend all summer talking up Joshua Palmer, and they backed it up in Week 1.
- 40 routes
- 9 targets
- 117 air yards
- 1 end zone target
There’s a lot to like in that profile, especially for an offense that has been searching for playmakers at the wide receiver position for a few years now. In 2023, we caught glimpses of spikeability from Palmer, and I’m not the least bit interested in betting against Josh Allen, so yeah, Palmer has my attention.
Even with that lead-in, we are still a ways away from him entering the flex conversation for me. This game figures to pace down in a major way compared to last week, and he’s still in a three-way fight for targets behind Khalil Shakir’s stable role on the short routes.
For the rest of the season, I prefer Keon Coleman to Palmer, and that is driving my projection.
Still, Palmer was more impressive than the second-year running back for three quarters of Week 1, and that has me at least considering the idea of him being the field stretcher in Upstate New York this year.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (vs. Eagles)
JuJu Smith-Schuster was the first Chief WR not named Xavier Worthy to see a target last week (six-yard reception), and the next play was a bomb for Tyquan Thornton (2022 second-round pick who spent three seasons with the Patriots after averaging 15.7 yards per catch during a four-year collegiate career at Baylor).
And then we got the Hollywood Brown experience.
I think that’s what is in line for us as long as the Worthy/Rice tandem is sidelined: randomness.
None of Smith-Schuster’s five targets against the Chargers (five catches for 55 yards) were thrown more than 10 yards downfield, a role that got him into double-digit PPR points because of how the game ran out along with the ineffective run game.
Not all Chief games look like that. And even if we knew that this game was going to follow a similar script, Brown still more than tripled Smith-Schuster’s usage while filling a similar role.
Yes, Smith-Schuster is worthy of an add; his path to regular routes in a Mahomes-led offense is simply too clear.
That said, I need to see more before looking this direction for my PPR flex, even in deeper PPR formats.
Justin Jefferson (vs. Falcons)
Justin Jefferson feels inevitable at times. Most of the time, actually.
Randy Moss called out a Jefferson touchdown on the Monday Night Manning Cast, and the best receiver in the sport promptly delivered. It took some time, and the touchdown saved you, but I’m not going to complain with a 35% target share in J.J. McCarthy’s first start.
It didn’t take long for Jefferson to prove that the Sam Darnold worries weren’t worth much last season (TD in four straight games to open the season, 80+ receiving yards in seven straight after a slow-ish Week 1), and we could see something awfully similar in this new era.
There isn’t a scheme out there that can stop Jefferson for 60 minutes, and that is what made him an appealing first-round pick, even with offensive uncertainty around him.
Keenan Allen (at Raiders)
If it walks like a duck and sounds like a duck.
Patterns are noted for a reason, and it’s because they are accurate in most cases. Not all, but most. They give us guardrails in life when it comes to expectations. When your child should speak for the first time, or the temperature it’s supposed to be in the middle of September.
Things like that, we have a general expectation for. Outliers happen, but more often than not, the pattern is accurate, which is why we operate under the assumptions that we do.
Keenan Allen turned 33 years of age in April and was a free agent until five weeks ago. When the NFL tells you that they aren’t interested in a player, history would suggest that, on the whole, fantasy managers shouldn’t be either.
If it shakes like an outlier and bakes like an outlier.
Allen was targeted on six of Justin Herbert’s first 18 targets in the season opener, including a sharp route that picked up seven yards on third-and-six. I was skeptical of how sticky Allen’s 2022 was, as he posted his fantasy efficiency and end zone volume were both high-water marks since his rookie season.
Was that simply the result of a young situation in Chicago where the old man in town was the only one who really knew how to operate?
I don’t think so. Not anymore.
Allen looked awfully fresh in the season opener, earning 10 targets on 32 routes (31.3% target rate, career average: 25.8%) and clearly benefiting from the strides made by Herbert since they last joined forces.
2022 with LAC: 103 catches for 1,243 yards and 7 touchdowns.
Let me be clear: I don’t think that stat line is being repeated. But with Ladd McConkey proving that he can kick outside and still be productive, there is very much a short-yardage role for PPR managers to chase here.
This summer, he was going 60 picks behind Jakobi Meyers. Those two will be in the same stadium on Monday night, and my projections for them are eerily similar the rest of the way. Ceiling weeks aren’t going to happen on any consistent basis, but a consistent double-digit point-producer is something every fantasy team needs, and that’s probably selling this outlier a bit short.
Allen is worth considering in flex leagues with 12+ teams, something I didn’t think I’d be saying by Halloween, let alone in September.
Keon Coleman (at Jets)
Keon Coleman, like most of the Bills, was a ghost for the better part of three quarters on Sunday night, but that’s why they play 60 minutes.
The second-year receiver scored 22.5 PPR points in the final stanza (no other flex player reached even 13.5 fourth-quarter points). The deep targets are one thing, the deflected touchdown is another, but how about five targets coming no more than 10 yards downfield?
We saw some route development from Marvin Harrison Jr.
over the weekend, and if this is the start of that for Coleman, could he be the bona fide WR1 that Upstate New York has been thirsting for?
I’m not there yet, and I still have Coleman hovering around WR40 in my Week 2 ranks (alongside veterans like Calvin Ridley and Keenan Allen), but I’ll be locked into this game and ready to act.
Last season, Coleman saw 11 targets on 53 routes against Gang Green, but picked up just 53 yards in the process, and that’s not going to cut it. I’m optimistic that we’ll get a Buffalo receiver into the top 25 next week; I’m just not sure if it’ll be Coleman or Khalil Shakir.
Khalil Shakir (at Jets)
If the high ankle sprain from the offseason was bothering Khalil Shakir in Week 1, he fooled me. In the game of the week with the Ravens, he ran 46 routes, earned nine targets, and caught six passes.
Rinse repeat. Right?
Ehhh, there might be something cooking in Buffalo.
Shakir had three deep targets on Sunday night, matching his highest mark from last season. In fact, if you look at his last five fantasy-relevant games, he’s seen three deep targets in three of them.
Are we quietly extending his route tree while also giving him enough volume on high-percentage looks to stabilize his floor?
I need one more week of seeing it, but if I do, I’ll be offering Shakir-centered trades in every league I’m in.
The reason I need to see it one more week isn’t a sample-size thing; it’s an opponent thing. The Jets held Shakir to 44 yards on 35 routes last season, shutting off his water almost completely once the Bills crossed midfield (one catch in New York territory across those games).
If this new version of Shakir can get loose against a defense that is familiar with stopping the old version, then I’m sold. He’s my WR37 as it is this week, making him a low-end flex play in PPR leagues, but should we get a usage line that mirrors what we saw last week, he’s going to be ranked as a WR2 for me against the Dolphins on Thursday night to kick off Week 3.
You’ve been warned.
Kyle Williams (at Dolphins)
Kyle Williams ran just five routes in his NFL debut last weekend against the Raiders. He caught his only target (12 yards). In the loss to the Raiders, Williams and 10 of his friends saw a target, a level of distribution that will make it impossible for a very fringe guy in deeper formats to hold any value whatsoever.
I know it was his introduction to the NFL, but he wasn’t even close to being a part of the plan, and that was in a game where DeMario Douglas turned seven targets into negative-2 yards.
I understand the idea of rostering a player like Williams in dynasty formats; you’re hoping that Drake Maye’s development can be a rising tide that lifts all youthful boats, but outside of that, there’s no need to hold steady.
Ladd McConkey (at Raiders)
I’m not sure it’s possible to be more impressed with how stable Ladd McConkey’s game is, considering he’s still two months shy of his 24th birthday.
Sure, we’ve seen prospects come into the pros and offer more immediately in the way of per-target upside. But McConkey plays as if he’s been identifying defenses and exposing pros for a decade.
As a rookie, he earned a 23.4% on-field target share with an average depth of look of 10.2 yards.
In Week 1, he earned a 23.7% on-field target share with an average depth of 10.3 yards.
That’s amazing consistency at face value, but when you consider that his slot rate shrank from 66% last season to 48.1% against the Chiefs, it’s borderline mind-boggling.
His route tree is far beyond his years, and it seems like the best is yet to come. McConkey totaled 13.4 PPR points on Friday night, and maybe that’s not exactly what you were looking for, given that the Bolts scored 27 points, but if Justin Herbert puts a little more air on a slant-and-go late in the second quarter, you’re looking at a 31-yard touchdown and a top-10 day at the office.
He pulled in five balls in both meetings with Vegas last season, but they were able to bottle him up to some degree. In those contests, six of his 10 catches gained no more than 10 yards, a rate that was well above his rate against the rest of the league as a rookie (41.7%).
Consider me not worried.
He was effectively just running to the sticks in those games. I’m expecting him to showcase his growth and impress again. If you have McConkey on your roster and can keep your matchup reasonably close through the weekend, I think you’re going to have every chance to get across the finish line in the second game of the Monday Night doubleheader.
Luther Burden III (at Lions)
It’s a no for me, dawg.
I’m not in the business of overreacting, but if you need to move on from Luther Burden after one career game, I have no issue with that. Sure, I might be jumping the gun, but if you’re pressed or really like someone out there on waivers, I say go for it.
In his NFL debut, Burden caught his only target and lost three yards with it. This offense was humming early and, even though it stalled with time, has all the traits of a Ben Johnson scheme.
Prioritize completions and efficiency.
In doing so, we saw running backs and tight ends account for 12 targets.
We also saw Rome Odunze’s average depth of target be scaled back in a major way, propelling him to a six-catch performance on a team-best nine looks.
DJ Moore ended up leading the team in receiving yards (68) and was handed the ball on three occasions. This is going to be an exotic offense that could be a good fit for Burden in time, but not with the collection of players he has to vault over right now.
Against the Vikings, he ranked seventh on this team in routes (six ran over 20 routes while he checked in with nine), and that’s a tough sell, even if you like the prospect profile.
I’m holding in dynasty situations, though expectations need to be adjusted if you were hoping for Year 1 value.
Malik Nabers (at Cowboys)
Malik Nabers fell out of bed into double-digit targets, and he did that again over the weekend in Washington, but he hauled in just five of 12 for 71 yards and was held out of the end zone.
The Giants were a mess, and Nabers still gets you a dozen PPR points, something that feels like his floor given the role in an offense that figures to be operating with an aggressive script more often than not this season.
The quarterback situation is what it is. Russell Wilson’s status as passively threatened this week, and while a change won’t be made for now, I’m not sure it matters.
The limitations of this offense as a whole are going to keep Nabers out of my top tier at the position. Still, the overwhelming nature of opportunities makes it impossible to rank him outside of the top 15.
Last season, he earned 28 targets on his 77 routes against Dallas as a rookie, totaling 20 catches and 184 yards in the process. In those contests, the Giants made it a point to get their best player involved – the majority of those receptions came no more than five yards down the field.
The Cowboys are coming off a historically bad season in terms of defending the red zone, and Wilson may be playing for his job: this is about as optimistic as I’m going to get for Nabers to find paydirt, and that’s why he’s my WR3 for this week.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (vs. Panthers)
We might be onto something in Arizona. Marvin Harrison Jr. came into the league last season with incredible expectations, but he ultimately underwhelmed. Part of that is our fault as an industry. Arizona seemed aware of some shortcomings and tried to work around them as best they could.
I still have some questions about his versatility, but Week 1 was certainly a step in the right direction (5-71-1), even if it came in New Orleans against a team favored to pick first overall in April.
2024 Splits:
- First quarter: 4.94 PPG, 52.8% over expectation
- Quarters 2-4: 6.62 PPG, 18.1% below expectation
Harrison was schemed up to look like a rookie and struggled otherwise. Over the weekend, he didn’t see a single target in the first 15 minutes, but worked his way into the game after that and reminded us of the pedigree.
We got a 45-yard contested catch, and we also got a designed quick hitter, something that wasn’t in the playbook for WR1 a season ago. Development isn’t a linear process, and if Harrison’s savvy is catching up to his raw abilities, we could be looking at him cashing in on the 2024 hype in 2025.
There is, of course, the potential for his strong start to be matchup-driven. That’s a fair long-term concern, but it’s not slowing me down this week. The Panthers aren’t exactly the ’85 Bears and are coming off a week in which they posted the lowest pressure rate in the NFL (12.1%, less than half of their 25.1% mark in 2024, a rate that was also the worst in the league).
We can have intelligent conversations in this space next week when it comes to how to evaluate Harrison for the rest of the season, but in the scope of Week 2, he’s knocking on the door of WR1 status for me and sits as my WR13.
Marvin Mims Jr. (at Colts)
Marvin Mims Jr. was a popular breakout candidate this summer after he showed signs down the stretch of 2024 that indicated he could be a project for Sean Payton to work on.
Personally, I lost affection for him after Pat Bryant was drafted, but perhaps the answer is that neither will be consistent enough ever to be trusted.
Sutton was the only Bronco pass catcher on the field for over 62% of their offensive snaps in Week 1 (Mims: 50.7%, behind Troy Franklin for those keeping track at home), and if that is how this rotation is going to work, you’re grasping for straws in thinking that there is a WR2 worth your time.
In the win, Mims finished with three catches for 12 yards and a lost fumble. I’ll be a week late, maybe a month late, on the Mims breakout, should it happen. There’s simply too much variance in this offense for me to be interested, especially if you’re operating with optimism toward their WR-RB-TE trio that we all generally like.
The Broncos are a good real-life team, but their fantasy appeal is currently limited and is likely to remain that way for the next four months.
Matthew Golden (vs. Commanders)
This is going to be a pain for four months.
Matthew Golden is a talented kid, but the Packers are trying to win football games, not fantasy matchups. They’ve made it clear in the past that variety is the spice of life when it comes to their WR rotation, and that’s what we saw in Sunday’s blowout win over the Lions.
Packers pass-catcher snaps, Week 1:
- Tucker Kraft: 43/18
- Romeo Doubs: 33/17
- Golden: 22/13
- Dontayvion Wicks: 21/9
- Jayden Reed: 18/12
I think there’s a reasonable chance that Golden has three big weeks this season, but predicting them is going to take more crystal ball and less spreadsheet.
In theory, this is a good spot. He’s a big-play threat, and the Commanders allowed the sixth-highest passer rating on deep throws a season ago, but without any proof of concept, I can’t imagine plugging him in as a flex on Thursday night.
Run him out there as a DFS Showdown captain if you want exposure; that way, if he hits big, you cash. But outside of that, I’m going to need to see it before I invest, and that’s realistically true for any receiver on this Green Bay roster.
Michael Pittman Jr. (vs. Broncos)
What is this? A 75% catch rate from Michael Pittman in Week 1? A touchdown and some consistency on the quality of targets?
This is new.
And I love it. He scored from 27 yards out on Sunday, the sixth-longest score of his career, and exposed a perfect matchup against a Dolphins team that is … in trouble.
Maybe we look back and see that everyone beat up on Miami, and that this was Pittman ultimately living up to expectations, not doing anything special. But for now, I’m choosing to be impressed by what I saw from him with Daniel Jones under center.
None of the Indy pass catchers were downfield threats on Sunday, but Pittman’s aDOT was a tick higher than both Josh Downs and Tyler Warren in Week 1. Normally, I’d like that, but if he draws Patrick Surtain on occasion this week, that spells trouble. It’s hard to get open against him as it is, and given that Denver, 2023’s runner-up in pressure rate, paced the NFL in that regard in Week 1, anything downfield figures to be difficult to come by on Sunday.
I’m in on the idea of Pittman being a flex you can rely on, but that optimism restarts in Week 3 in Tennessee.
Mike Evans (at Texans)
Mike Evans hauled in five balls on a team-high eight targets against the Falcons for 51 yards, but it’s hard not to follow your eyes on this one.
Didn’t Emeka Egbuka look like the harder player to guard?
It’s one game, I’m aware of that.
But this is a 32-year-old who has an elite prospect coming in, reinforcements on the way eventually, a new offensive system, and a single data point (1.55 yards per route) that would be the worst of his career if extended for the entire season.
Relax, I’m not projecting that, but I am saying that if you feel less confident in your Evans stock today than you did a week ago, I don’t blame you. A.J. Terrell was matched up with him on Sunday, and maybe he has some tricks of the trade from experience that will be tough to repeat (even if Evans has largely done well in that matchup), but this is a WR1 committee to me now with Evans more likely to fade than Egbuka.
Evans remains a starter, though I don’t think you should be surprised if this is a topsy-turvy season for the future Hall of Famer. If that rollercoaster isn’t for you, hop off after the next big game. Evans is my WR19 this week, and Egbuka is my WR22.
Nico Collins (vs. Buccaneers)
Is it possible that I was out over my skis in labeling Nico Collins as fantasy’s top receiver in 2025?
It’s possible.
Am I backing off on it after a goofy Week 1 that saw 12 of 16 games go under the projected total, and points were hard to come by across the league?
Not yet.
The Texans allowed pressure at the seventh-highest rate in Week 1, and the offensive line is a serious issue that needs to be considered. That and the Christian Kirk injury loom large, as opponents have little to no reason not to shade everything they do towards Collins.
That said, the offensive line held up when not blitzed (16th in pressure rate). They were destroyed when the Rams brought the heat (Stroud was pressured on five of six blitzes), but that’s the sort of thing that can be improved with time and reps. As the communication within the group improves, I hope that they can do better and give this offense a chance.
The matchup sets up well for Collins and this offense as a whole to bounce back after one of the more disappointing showings in Week 1. Drake London earned a 35.7% target share last week against the Bucs, a continuation of them struggling to slow down big-play threats.
In 2024, London dropped 33.4 points on them in Week 5, but we also saw DeAndre Hopkins and Rashod Bateman clear 22 points. As did Adam Thielen with an offense built around him, even if the offense was of lesser quality.
I like Collins to bounce back this week and remind you why you spent a top-15 pick on him.
Pat Bryant (at Colts)
Pat Bryant impressed every college football fan in 2024 (54 catches for 984 yards and 10 scores), and the idea of Sean Payton adding a weapon like that was tempting as drafts concluded this summer.
The train of thought made sense, and maybe it will pay off in the long term. Short term? We have zero evidence that there are any plans to give the rookie much of a chance to show what he can do.
In Week 1, Bryant played four snaps, two of which were run plays. If your team was hit with injuries in Week 1, this is the type of player you can move on from. But most teams aren’t ravaged quite yet, and in those spots, this is an interesting enough profile for me to hold tight.
If you want to really overthink things, I’m here for you. Do you trust the Raiders or Jaguars’ defenses? I don’t. The Packers looked good in Week 1 and are likely a top-10 unit, but playing for a 10th consecutive week and at altitude?
- Week 14 at Raiders
- Week 15 vs. Packers (Green Bay has a Week 6 bye)
- Week 16 vs. Jaguars
If your Bryant optimism is going to pay off, there’s a chance it hits at the perfect time. I’m not saying it will, but I’ve been researching this game long enough to know that snap patterns in Week 1 aren’t always predictive of what we see in December.
Puka Nacua (at Titans)
Puka Nacua was bleeding all over the place against the Texans. He may have spent more minutes in the medical tent than there were points scored in the game, but that didn’t stop him from being targeted on every other route and further cementing his status as one of the more inevitable producers in the sport.
I love that the Rams are trending toward getting him a carry or two whenever they can on top of the 8+ targets he’s nearly a lock for (he’s done it in six of seven career games when Los Angeles is a road favorite). His weekly range of outcomes is on par with the best receivers in the NFL, though the process of watching him grind his way through a contest can test your mental fortitude.
Patrick Surtain could be on a Revis Island trajectory (Surtain’s Circle? I’m workshopping nicknames after another strong showing where he limited Calvin Ridley to 27 yards on eight targets) and that’s enough to scare me off of the premium price tag in DFS.
But in season-long, there’s nothing to do here. Nacua plays with one of the greatest WR elevators of this generation, and he will be carried out on his shield before letting your team down.
Draft Nacua. Play Nacua.
Easy game.
Quentin Johnston (at Raiders)
Before we get into the wet blanket portion of the breakdown, let’s give Johnston credit for what he did on Friday night.
He turned seven targets into a 5-79-2 receiving line, totaling 24.9 PPR points in the process, the second-best showing of his career.
The best game of his career? In Vegas against these Raiders to wrap last season.
On the first drive, he caught a pair of passes on five routes for 38 yards and a score. That was great, but five targets on his following 31 routes weren’t ideal. In a game where he seemed to have a matchup advantage and the Chargers were willing to air the ball out, Johnston was still out-caught and out-targeted by both Keenan Allen and Ladd McConkey.
If Los Angeles is truly going to let Justin Herbert cook this season, there are going to be games like this. Understood. But the Johnston coin will land on the other side, and history suggests that we are getting that result more often than not.
In the win over the Chiefs, nine different Chargers were targeted. Tre Harris is a player who figures to develop with time, Najee Harris is going to be more of a threat with time, and Omarion Hampton might be the next great running back who is capable of breaking the game in a variety of ways.
Johnston wasn’t drafted in 97.3% of leagues per the PFSN Mock Draft Simulator, and that obviously feels wrong as we sit here today.
Should he be on a roster?
Probably.
Could he clear 15 PPR points for the fifth time in his past seven games?
It’s possible.
Given the depth of the position league-wide and the number of options on an offense that still comes with plenty of ground-and-pound risk in spots like this where the game script projects to be in their favor, I’m not close to flexing him just yet.
Rashee Rice (vs. Eagles)
Rashee Rice has been suspended for the first six weeks of this season for a violation of the NFL’s personal conduct policy, which you should be aware of.
Rice showed well physically in camp, and when he’s back on the active roster, there’s no conversation to be had. Over his past 13 healthy games, his 17-game pace was 110 catches and eight scores, a line that makes him an unquestioned asset in all formats.
READ MORE: Chiefs Predicted to Trade for 13-TD WR With Xavier Worthy Hurt, Rashee Rice Suspended
With Travis Kelce at the mercy of Father Time and Xavier Worthy’s role only set to regress, Rice is the pass catcher to trust in this offense when at full strength, and it’s not close in my opinion.
If you roster Rice, you have the opportunity to play him every week. Survive in the short term and thrive in the long term. I’m told this is what parenting is like, but I cannot confirm.
If you don’t, I’d suggest actively rooting against the team that does. Not that “rooting” does you any good, but you will want to keep tabs on that team: if that team stubs its toe out of the gates and doesn’t feel as if it can survive the entirety of this suspension, you might be able to buy low on a potential league winner:
Week 12 vs. Colts
Stat to track: Second-highest short pass passer rating allowed in 2024 (only the Patriots were worse).
Week 13 at Cowboys
Stat to track: Highest short completion percentage allowed last season (78.5%, league average: 73.5%).
Week 14 vs. Texans
Stat to track: Allowed a league-high 6.1 yards per catch after the reception last season (NFL average: 5.3)
Week 15 vs. Chargers
Stat to track: Last season, 50 of Mahomes’ 66 passes thrown against the Chargers traveled less than 10 yards downfield (75.8%, the highest mark of his career against the divisional opponent, career rate prior vs LAC: 65.4%)
Week 16 at Titans
Stat to track: Sixth-highest touchdown rate allowed on short passes
Week 17 vs.
Broncos
Stat to track: Mahomes played against them once last season, and he threw 31 passes no more than five yards downfield, the third highest.
Rashid Shaheed (vs. 49ers)
The Saints are going to be forced into these “pass more than we want to and hope for the best” situations with regularity this season, and that puts Rashid Shaheed on the flex radar any time you need it.
That said, this quarterback situation is going to make you uncomfortable in doing so whenever you need it.
I remain sold on Shaheed as an above-average talent, but the fact that this player can have a nine-target, 33-yard game is reflective of the issues in The Big Easy these days.
Last season, the 49ers ranked as a top-5 defense against the deep pass, with the fewest attempts faced, the lowest completion percentage, the fewest yards per attempt, and the highest passer rating. I have Shaheed on more than a few benches, but I’ll admit it: I’m essentially hoping that he runs into the perfect situation the time or two I need him.
With the weather largely not an issue and all 32 teams in action, this isn’t one of those situations.
Rashod Bateman (vs. Browns)
Rashod Bateman’s 2024 profile screamed regression all summer long, and I’d say a 2-10-0 stat line in a game in which Baltimore scored 40 points qualifies as such.
The former first-round pick has never reached 50 receptions in a season, and last season was his first with more than two touchdowns. Bateman has scored under 8.5 PPR points in two-thirds of his career games against the division, a trend I believe continues against a Browns defense that showed well for itself against the Bengals in the opener.
Ricky Pearsall (at Saints)
Less than a year ago, Ricky Pearsall was dealing with a gunshot wound, and now, his teammates would love to know his health status.
He looked great in the season opener (108 yards), highlighted by a pump-and-go that helped set up the game-winning score. His first-round pedigree makes more and more sense every time we see him lace ’em up, but now he’s going to be asked to essentially carry this offense.
Purdy is hobbled while every other pass catcher (WR/TE) on our radar is slated to be in street clothes. I want to buy Pearsall, and this week, I am (WR25), but I do fear that we are heaping a lot in terms of responsibilities on his plate.
In Week 1, the majority of his targets came deep downfield (last season: 26.1%). I like how that skill set aligns with this roster at full strength, but we aren’t assured of seeing that any time soon, if at all.
I’d be more likely to move on from Pearsall than I would be to trade for him.
Rome Odunze (at Lions)
Ben Johnson left no doubt about the hierarchy of his receivers on Monday night: Rome Odunze and DJ Moore both cleared an 80% snap share while Luther Burden was present for just 27% of their offensive plays.
Breakout mode, activated.
Odunze finished as Chicago’s top player in targets and catches, but it’s more than that. Johnson schemed up a play with plenty of misdirection and ball handling from Williams to get him a touchdown in close.
“In close.”
In 2024, as a rookie, he was used as a vertical threat. That was his role, and while there were flashes of production, it’s hard for anyone to sustain value in that spot.
2024 splits:
- Odunze: 39.6% of targets came 15+ yards down the field
- Keenan Allen: 23.1% of targets came 15+ yards down the field
- Moore: 18.6% of targets came 15+ yards down the field
But on Monday, Odunze saw 22.2% of his targets come downfield while Moore saw 60%. That’s a tiny sample, and I doubt it sticks, but it was the type of proof I needed to see to verify that Johnson is willing to explore the skills of this budding star.
With that said, can we please get him running down the field this week?
Last season, albeit in two matchups sans Aidan Hutchinson, Williams posted an 11.
3 aDOT against the Lions (7.4 against the rest of the NFL). This is a new offense, but I think a similar attack makes sense, and that puts Odunze in a position to again return viable flex numbers.
My order for these receivers remains unchanged. I still prefer the stability of Moore, but Odunze is trending in a positive direction, and I don’t mind buying early in the trade market if he’s still available for something close to his draft-day cost.
Romeo Doubs (vs. Commanders)
The Packers dominated the Lions from start to finish. They averaged 8.5 yards per pass and scored on the majority of their drives. Everything any Cheesehead hoped this season essentially came true by knocking off the reigning NFC North champions without much of a sweat.
All of that happened, and we didn’t learn a damn thing about their target distribution.
Romeo Doubs led the Green and Gold with 68 receiving yards, while Jayden Reed paced them in receptions and fantasy points. Dontayvion Wicks had a pair of catches, gaining 14+ yards, and Matthew Golladay caught the passes thrown his way.
In Week 1, Jordan Love showed complete control of the offense and spread his 16 completions across 10 different players. It was a democratic distribution, and while that might work for Green Bay as a team, it makes them essentially a no-fly zone for fantasy managers.
Tucker Kroft led the Pack in routes run, with Doubs topping that list for the receivers, but I have zero confidence in any of that sticking. Some teams are threats to make deep playoff runs because they have a sledgehammer they can use to beat you into submission.
Like the Ravens. We generally know where their production is coming from, and we love that.
The Packers aren’t that, and they are never going to be. All of the receivers on this team need to be rostered based on our faith in this offense as a whole, but you can’t justify ranking any of them as top-30 WRs right now.
This is a headache, and I’m not sure it gets better with time. Look for the hot Packer receiver of the week (there isn’t one right now) to top the sell-high trade lists. This is the rare explosive offense that you don’t want to overextend to get exposure to.
Stefon Diggs (at Dolphins)
Stefon Diggs’ aDOT in 2022 was 11.9 yards, and that was suitable. He was able to run a wide range of routes and display a versatile skill set. It fell to 10.8 the following season, tanked to 8.3 with the Texans last season, and with an 8.1 mark on Sunday, it’s clear that his current employer is seeing what others have recently.
Father Time looms.
New England is a pass game that is a work in progress and operates largely out of three-receiver sets. This team is a team on the rise, while Diggs’ career has pretty clearly reached the back-9.
He’s not a receiver that I’m excited about rostering and checks in outside of my top-40 at the position this week.
Tee Higgins (vs. Jaguars)
Rub some dirt on it and move on.
I play around with the data all day, and I can’t do any better than that when breaking down the Bengals’ Week 1 performance. The Browns have the right talent mix to give this offense fits (45 points scored across their two games last season), and they did it again in Week 1.
Everyone attached to the Cincinnati offense struggled in Week 1, and my opinion of all of them remains unchanged from the preseason.
Higgins saw his streak of fantasy games with an end zone target end at six straight, and his 49 air yards were less than half of what he averaged per game a season ago (101.8). It was ugly across the board, but it’s not as if Joe Burrow was dealing elsewhere, thus making this a Higgins problem.
It was simply a dud to open the season.
There were five Bengals with multiple first-half targets against Cleveland, and Higgins wasn’t one of them.
Don’t care. He opened last season with a near-identical dud before ripping off six straight games with at least six receptions or a touchdown.
Better times are ahead and it should start this week. Higgins averaged 22.8 PPR points per game at home last season (15.4 on the road) and if you’re buying the 26.5-implied point total for Cincy in this spot, you can, and should, expect their WR2 to trend toward his high-end WR2 status in our game.
Terry McLaurin (at Packers)
Let me start by saying that I understand the narrative. Across the industry this week, I’ve seen analysts wondering aloud about whether this is now a WR1a/WR1b situation in Washington, and if you base it solely on Week 1 production, that seems like a best-case scenario for Terry McLaurin managers.
Commanders WRs vs NYG, Week 1:
- Deebo Samuel: 7 catches, 10 targets, 77 yards, 19-yard rush TD
- McLaurin: 2 catches, 4 targets, 27 yards
There is a point of concern for me regarding McLaurin, and I think it highlights his profile as more sporadic than anything else.
I don’t doubt that the year-end numbers will still be there, but the fact that he didn’t see a target thrown less than nine yards downfield on Sunday is a red flag (2024: 47.
9% of his targets came on such passes, and his catch rate on those looks was 87.5%). The layup targets might be a thing of the past, and that’s impactful.
But do I think his spot at the top of this depth chart is in question? I don’t. Jayden Daniels missed him on a double move in the second quarter, a beautiful design that very well could have been a 69-yard touchdown (a 13.9-point play).
Land that punch, and the storylines shift today. That’s the nature of the business. More often than not, Daniels puts more air under that pass, McLaurin finds his way to paydirt, and we all live happily ever after with Week 1 victories.
In 2024, McLaurin averaged 12.5 PPR PPG when facing teams that would go on to make the playoffs (two of the three road games were flat-out duds with under four PPR points) and 17.1 against non-playoff teams.
He’s my highest-ranked Commander WR this weekend (WR25), and while the gap has narrowed, I still feel good about the hierarchy in Washington.
Tetairoa McMillan (at Cardinals)
Not a ton of priors were confirmed on a sluggish Week 1 across the NFL, but Tetairoa McMillan being “the guy” in Carolina from the jump certainly was.
Playing mainly on the boundary, he commanded a 25.
7% target share, caught five balls, and more than doubled the receiving yardage of any of his teammates. The rate numbers look impressive, and they are expected to remain consistent throughout the season, but you can only do so much if the environment is suboptimal.
Bryce Young is still a work in progress. We can cite all the final month of 2022 stats that we want, but until he’s pumping out quality starts consistently, the production of the pieces around him is going to be spotty, even for a player commanding an impressive target share.
You drafted McMillan with the hope that you’d be able to feel good about playing him weekly, and, in a flex sort of way, I think we are there. That’s not to say his profile is bulletproof, and he’s my WR3 among rookies, but the usage/talent combination is enough for me to rank him above high-floor types like Jakobi Meyers.
Travis Hunter (at Bengals)
Liam Coen tried to tell us in August, using his listed depth chart, that Travis Hunter was a wide receiver who could play cornerback, not the other way around.
He wasn’t lying.
Not only did 86.7% of his snaps come on the offensive side of the ball, but they also showed no hesitation in going his direction (targeted on two of Trevor Lawrence’s first seven passes of the season).
If we are nitpicking his debut, I’d love to see more exploring of his unique athleticism. All six of his receptions came on passes thrown less than eight yards downfield, and while that helped with his efficiency, it capped his upside.
That should come with time. Even without it, he’s comfortably at the top of my flex ranks for Week 2, and I only see him gaining value as he gains comfort with the speed of the professional game.
Tyquan Thornton (vs. Eagles)
Well, well, well, what do we have here?
The 2022 second-round pick (15.7 yards per catch in college at Baylor) was viewed as a toolsy player with contingent value for the Chiefs a month ago.
And now? Could you argue that he is their most irreplaceable WR?
That might be a bit of a stretch, but he’s a vertical threat in an Andy Reid offense that promised us more deep shots and is now without the fastest man in NFL Combine history?
Thornton’s four targets against Los Angeles totaled 109 air yards (more than Hollywood Brown finished with despite seeing 16 targets), and that’s what we have here. He’s never going to rank as a top-35 player at the position, but the Chiefs have a need, and for right now, he’s the man for the job.
You can’t tell me that the last person on your bench currently has an outlook that is that optimistic.
Tyreek Hill (vs. Patriots)
What in the world are we supposed to do here?
The scary part is that I’m not sure Tyreek Hill would feel confident in starting Tyreek Hill these days, and that’s a position that almost requires blind confidence.
In addition to just the vibes being sideways in South Beach, Hill wasn’t really put in a position to succeed last week, and that was against an occasionally vulnerable Colts defense. He averaged a near unfathomable 1.3 yards after the catch per reception in Week 1 (career rate: 4.8), something that calls into question a ton of things.
1) Is he washed?
2) Is this offense using him properly?
3) Has the shine of this system completely worn off?
I wish I had an answer for you.
I have him hovering around WR30 for the week, and I’m not inclined to move off of that. Jakobi Meyers has averaged 9.4 targets and 15.9 PPR points per game since Davante Adams was traded and offers an elevated floor: how can I reasonably rank Hill ahead of a profile like that?
If you paid up for him and feel obligated to start him, I get it. I’m a man of the people and can share with you that he’s played four games against the Patriots where Tagovailoa was under center:
- 16.
9 PPR PPG
- 6 end zone targets
- 29% target rate
Repeat those rates, and we are looking at a WR2 with ease. But are those past numbers viable anymore? I need a few more data points to dismiss all previous production completely, but my patience is wearing thin, and I imagine you’re in the same boat.
Wan’Dale Robinson (at Cowboys)
If you locked me in a dark room and asked me to project Wan’Dale Robinson without any information (no mention of the quarterback he’s playing with, the opponent, the weather, no nothing), I think I land somewhere in the range of 5-7 catches for 60-ish yards.
Week 1 at Washington: 6 catches for 55 yards.
You know what you’re getting, and that can be useful. Broccoli is a nice complement to my chicken parm. But if you have too much broccoli and not enough chicken parm, what are you doing?
That’s to say that every team should have a floor riser like Robinson, but let’s not overdo it. Situationally, he’s viable, but his role is far from pliable.
I believe that Robinson is largely matchup-proof. Good or bad, he’s looking at 9-12 PPR points. That train of thought has held up for much of his career, but the Cowboys have been the exception.
Worrisome is the fact that his 15 career catches against Dallas have totaled just 93 yards.
Even more worrisome is that 11 of those catches and 71 of those yards came in one of those three games.
In his two trips to Jerry’s World, Robinson has turned 59 routes into… wait for it… 12 yards on five targets. Week 2 isn’t the spot to deploy Robinson: wait until you have injuries to navigate, and his floor becomes more appealing. For this week, I’d be more likely to take my chances on a Rashid Shaeed or Tillman-type receiver, one that can reach Robinson’s projection on a single target.
Xavier Worthy (vs. Eagles)
Xavier Worthy was handed the ball on Kansas City’s second play from scrimmage, and I allowed my mind to wander.
Are we looking at a skinny version of prime Deebo Samuel? Could Worthy’s generational speed be weaponized in a crazy way by the mad scientist that is Andy Reid?
As it turns out, I may have gotten sucked in a touch quickly. On the next play, he landed hard on his shoulder and was visibly frustrated as he was helped to the locker room.
READ MORE: Xavier Worthy Injury Update: How Long Will the Chiefs WR Be Out?
Worthy was ruled out for the rest of the opener shortly thereafter and seems poised to miss the rest of the month at the very least.
If he were set to be a full go for this contest, it would have been easy to feel good about playing him.
In his brief Week 1 appearance, he was as featured as we could have hoped, and while much of his production came in garbage time, he did turn eight Super Bowl targets into eight catches, 157 yards, and two long touchdowns (24 and 50 yards).
The million-dollar question: who, if anyone, picks up the Worthy role now that Andy Reid has had a week to sit on things?
Zay Flowers (vs. Browns)
Week 1 comes with overreactions. It’s what we do. I can say that Juwan Johnson is pacing to break the single-season record for TE receptions, or that Keon Coleman is poised to be vintage DeAndre Hopkins and get away with it, because the only data point we have this season supports where those insane takes are pointing.
I stay away from that stuff.
Usually.
I think Zay Flowers played the best game of his career on Sunday night, and I fear that everyone is going to forget it. It’ll be pushed aside because Derrick Henry was treating professional athletes like they were mosquitoes or because Josh Allen put on the cape for the final five minutes.
Those are completely viable storylines, but we know both of those guys are monsters. We know they are capable of elite seasons, never mind isolated snapshots.
In the case of Flowers, I don’t remember an instance where I thought he gave the Ravens the star receiver they’ve needed during the Lamar Jackson era.
Until Sunday night.
The final stat line is great (seven catches for 143 yards and a touchdown in addition to two carries for eight yards), but I walked away more impressed with the “how.”
- Deep targets: 5 (tied for the third most in a game for his career)
- Targets thrown no more than three yards downfield: 4
- Third down targets: 3
- Targets following play-action: 3
- Targets when Jackson was pressured: 3
In essence, every situation in that heartbreaking loss was a Flowers situation. It’s easy to forget that Flowers was a 16.4 yards per catch guy at Boston College from 2020-21 before he traded in some playmaking for volume as a senior. There is a well-rounded skill set there and, in Week 1 at least, Todd Monken seemed to unlock it.
Flowers has been held out of the end zone in all four of his career games against the Browns (99 routes run), but that shouldn’t worry you in the least if you believe we have a new receiver on our hands.
The gravity that the Jackson/Henry tandem creates is unlike any other situation in the NFL.
I’m not trying to sell you on Flowers being a better player than Ladd McConkey, but you can’t tell me that there’s not at least a chance that the talent difference is offset by how defenses line up against them.
This week will be a good litmus test. If I’m right and Flowers explodes again, you’re going to want to come back to here next week for what will be a dissertation on his path to winning your league.
The Browns are a high-pressure defense, and that opened them up to the highest opponent average depth of target and the third most YAC allowed per reception a season ago. If Flowers can adjust to what is required of him for this specific matchup, there won’t be a price I’m not willing to pay to acquire him.
Flowers was drafted as a flex this summer. My base rank for this week was WR16, and he may have inched up a few spots depending on when you are reading this.
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